Would you bid on this hand? (19 March, 4/17)

Discussion of hands from past BSkA tournaments (or other events) and how they were bid and played. Skat problems. General discussion of strategy and tactics.

Would you bid on this hand? (19 March, 4/17)

Postby Gustavo » Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:10 pm

You are VH. Both MH and HH passed. Would you bid 18 on this hand? Why/why not?

J:
C:7
S:A,K,9,7
H:Q
D:A,10,Q,9

If you bid, here's the Skat:

C9, SQ

What do you put back in the Skat? What game do you play?
Gustavo
 
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Re: Would you bid on this hand? (19 March, 4/17)

Postby Mike Tobias » Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:55 pm

I don't bid unless I'm feeling very adventurous: the hand is very weak, I probably need both Skat cards to be helpful to even stand a chance.

With the C9, SQ pick up, I think I'd discard HQ, DA and play null, lead the C9 and pray for very favourable splits.

The alternative is Spades without 4, discarding probably HQ and D10, but I think that's even less likely to win.

Null gets the nod as the cheapest loss
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Re: Would you bid on this hand? (19 March, 4/17)

Postby Gustavo » Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:35 pm

I played Spades without 4 and lost big time. However, when bidding I thought that there was a good chance of having a Jack in the Skat, which would leave me with 5 trump, a long suit and void in at least one of Hearts or Clubs (or maybe both). I thought I could lead pips and wait for full ones from Hearts or Clubs to trump, but that didn't happen. I guess I was expecting too much?
Gustavo
 
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Re: Would you bid on this hand? (19 March, 4/17)

Postby John McLeod » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:24 am

I would not have bid either. Also consider this: suppose the cards in the skat had been C9, HJ, fulfilling your hope of finding a jack. You will still play in spades and your hand is not all that much stronger than the one you actually had. Only five trumps and not enough trump strength to draw all the enemy trumps since you will lose the lead each time you play trumps.

If I had to play this I would make spades trump and put HQ and D10 in the skat (since I can't expect to win more than one diamond trick). A possible plan for the play is to cash the ace of diamonds hoping to catch the king and then lead a small trump, hoping that the opponents will be kind enough to lead back the ace of hearts which I can trump with my ace. That gets me to 50 points: 13 in the skat, 15 in the diamond trick and 22 when I trump the heart, so I still have to scramble another 11 points from somewhere. Maybe they will let me trump another heart with my king of spades.

A problem with this plan is that if the defenders are good, they will realise when I play my ace of diamonds rather than drawing trumps first that I have a weak hand, and act accordingly. So maybe it's better to start with a small trump so as not to give away the situation. That improves the chance that the defender who wins the first trick will misread the situation and play the HA. After trumping this I can lead the DA followed by a second small trump. If the trumps are 3-3 the opponents now can't draw my last two trumps, so my chances to get enough points by trumping in a second time are improved. The drawback is that if I give away the lead at trick 1, the opponent with a single diamond may find a way to get rid of it before I have a chance to win my DA. But the situation is fairly desperate anyway so probably it's worth taking that risk.
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Re: Would you bid on this hand? (19 March, 4/17)

Postby Mike Tobias » Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:09 am

This hand went off at all three tables, but in different seats: you went off as FH, I went off in Hearts as MH and Beate in Clubs as HH, and we can all claim to be a little bit unlucky,

This was the full hand:

FH
J:
C:7
S:A,K,9,7
H:Q
D:A,10,Q,9

MH
J:S,D
C:A,Q
S:10
H:A,8,7
D:K,7

HH
J:C,H
C:10,K,8
S:8
H:10.K.9
D:8

Sk C9.SQ

You were unlucky hearng two passes: you should have heard a bid from MH (certainly) and maybe HH, in which case you'd have passed; I had possibilities in Clubs and Hearts, picked up the lousy Skat and then ran into a 5-1 split in Hearts (it was 5-1 in Clubs as well); Beate was also unlucky not hearing a bid from MH, and although the Skat was slightly more helpful to her, she also had the bad splits in Clubs and Hearts..
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