Page 1 of 1

Beginners luck

PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:25 am
by Mike Tobias
At the YMCA we had two tables of four including a complete beginner who felt able to play after watching three or four warm up hands. He had watched a session some months ago, but I'm not sure how much he remembered.

In practice, the dealers were playing the hands for him, explaining what they were doing and why.

Hand 1, dealer helps him to a Grand with 1, schneider. Hand 2, I play a null ouvert. Hand 3, I deal and look at what I've given him as Vorhand

J CS
H A10Q
D A10K87

His third ever hand of Skat, the hearts split 2-1 and 1 in the Skat Grand Ouvert.

After his own deal, his next hand was a Grand with 4, schneider, 5 hands, one of which he dealt, 432 (+150) pts and we went on to help him wipe the floor with us.

Re: Beginners luck

PostPosted: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:23 pm
by Patrick Phair
Your new player was indeed lucky with the cards he picked up, but his advisors didn't play with the odds, by a large margin.

With A10Q the odds of success are just over 64%, so over a third of the time he would score -432 on that hand and the overall +432 would have been -216. Announcing Schneider and making Schwarz would have reduced the hand from +216 to +168. I would be happy enough with that, since I have never announced Schneider in the 52 Synchron tournaments I have played, probably amounting to about 4000 hands.

I believe Grand Open has happened once in all the tournaments I have written up, but I can't find it now. I remember that it failed. It depended on A10xx running, which is an 84.4% chance -- better than this hand but still against the odds.

Patrick

Re: Beginners luck

PostPosted: Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:20 am
by Mike Tobias
I was that adviser and you're right, it's not a good %age play, but how many GOs are you going to get in your Skat playing career?
If you wait for the 100% certainty, you'll probably never see one, if you go for the likes of A10Q, you'll make a few and lose a few, all part of the fun.

The GO you're talking about was at the Plough: 2/2/08 Session 3, hand 3. Forehand held:

J CSD
C A
H A1087
D A10

Nick, Uwe and David played the safe, sensible, guaranteed (and very boring) schneider announced, Thomas and I were heroes and went for the GO, which failed, HH holding KQ9.